19 Aug 2020
By Stuart Patrick, Chief Executive, Glasgow Chamber of Commerce.
No matter which side you take in the contrasting strategies of the UK and Scottish Governments over the re-opening of the economy, the vice involving the UK’s wind down of business support and Scotland’s cautious re-opening process is tightening.
For many Scottish businesses and their staff, the prospects look grim with demand rising too slowly to match the closure timetable for the Job Retention Scheme. That is especially the case for consumption businesses operating in our city centres.
Demonising either government for their choices isn’t particularly helpful because there is a desperate need for the two governments to edge closer towards each other if we are to avoid at least some of the pain of businesses closed and jobs lost that looks very likely right now.
The UK Government must show some flexibility in extending support measures for the most exposed sectors. The Scottish Government must show more urgency in re-opening the economy and helping business confidence and consumer demand grow.
But if the next few months are as bad economically as any we have experienced, longer-term prospects need not be so gloomy. The last traditional face to face member event I hosted before the pandemic swept in was dedicated to the reasons why faith in Glasgow’s economic future should be robust.
Glasgow entered the crisis in as good a shape as we had seen in 30 years, with population growing and a UN forecast suggesting it would grow twice as fast in the next 17 years as it had in the previous.
Diversification of the city’s economy was well entrenched with a track record in securing jobs and investment in financial and business services and a skyline of cranes developing projects for Barclays, JP Morgan, Her Majesty’s Government Office and Clydesdale Bank.
Clyde Gateway was busily demonstrating what long-term commitment to the regeneration of the city’s East End could achieve. The Cabinet Secretary for Finance had just announced the launch of the Clyde Mission to build further momentum behind reshaping the river and its banks.
Innovation districts led by the University of Strathclyde and the University of Glasgow were emerging as mechanisms to exploit research strengths in enabling technologies like photonics, in low carbon industries, in advanced manufacturing and in health and life sciences.
The city had just been named the world’s leading festival and events destination 2019 at the World Travel Awards and the Scottish Events Campus was gearing up to deliver COP26 giving Glasgow the hosting role in the global climate change challenge.
How much of that progress must now be foregone? I would argue there is no need to write off any of it. Investment was flowing in because Glasgow had become one of the most highly skilled cities in Europe, in the top 15% of European regions for the share of working age adults with at least a degree-level qualification.
Nothing from the pandemic fundamentally changes that, although some nimble work in reskilling towards freshly growing industries especially in the enabling technologies would be wise.
Business investors will still be looking for talent and nothing will advertise that talent better than the innovation districts. Ensuring our universities and colleges emerge from the crisis financially secure is therefore absolutely crucial.
We should be alert to the opportunities that will come from investors rethinking their attachment to the world’s biggest cities and from the re-shoring of supply chains.
Even the assumption that world travel and major events are a thing of the past is highly dubious. COP26 has been rescheduled until November 2021. What an opportunity to present Glasgow to the world when this crisis inevitably passes.
