12 May 2021
By Stuart Patrick, Chief Executive of Glasgow Chamber of Commerce
The election is behind us and with the trees outside my window coming fully into leaf I am determined to look ahead with optimism.
At last the pandemic news is positive. The UK threat level has dropped to three and more scientists are sounding optimistic that the vaccination programme is having a better impact than expected. And unless I am being selective in my reading of scientific analysis the dire warnings on variants appear to be diminishing.
Next Monday’s further lifting of restrictions is a welcome step back to normality and for many businesses is finally the point when pressures really begin to ease.
The National Institute for Economic and Social Research yesterday improved its 2021 forecast for UK economic growth from its February figure of 3.4% to 5.7%. The Bank of England is even more optimistic forecasting a 7.5% increase, suggesting the strongest performance for the UK economy since WW2. There is £200 billion of additional household savings available to fund that growth.
There is obviously no consensus on Scotland’s constitutional future, but all political parties do emphasise the importance of prioritising economic and social recovery – at least for the short term. The SNP’s programme for the first 100 days of the new administration offers a guide to what we can expect next. There will be a new Council for Economic Transformation to prepare a 10-year National Strategy for Economic Transformation.
Inviting business to be a prominent contributor to that strategy would be a good move. The relationship with the business community has been badly damaged over the past 14 months and it would be helpful if there was more open dialogue and less lecturing on health, climate change and fair work. Good businesses already know that their customers and their staff expect responsible strategies on all of these issues.
In Glasgow the data tracking progress towards the city’s net zero targets shows that industry has so far made the greatest contribution. You can also be certain that businesses will engage willingly with the various actions set out for helping the young get better access to employment, including the new fund to encourage training and recruitment and the search for new green jobs. So, let us use the new Council as an opportunity to reset terms of engagement.
There are commitments to support local businesses in tourism and hospitality in emerging from the pandemic, including the Scotland Loves Local campaign, a new £25m fund for tourism, and a new campaign to promote Scotland as a tourism choice. There is also a commitment to a route map for reopening cultural venues and performances.
But some required actions are missing. It would be hugely helpful to city centres if there was a more detailed route map for the reopening of offices and a steer on when the default position on home working was going to come to an end.
And small businesses operating in city centres are nervously holding on for clarity knowing that terms for the job retention scheme become progressively tighter from the end of June.
Also missing is any mention of airports and the wider travel industry. We face a titanic struggle to recover the direct flights we need to support tourism and to help businesses access export markets. Let’s rebuild the relationships with our airports as a matter of urgency.
And let’s not forget that we have a digital technology revolution to tackle and strengths in artificial intelligence to exploit. That new economic strategy has a lot to consider and it will be all the better if the business community is warmly welcomed as a partner.
This article was first published in The Herald on Wednesday 12 May 2021
