12 Oct 2022
By Stuart Patrick, Chief Executive of Glasgow Chamber of Commerce
The Herald’s Deputy Business Editor, Scott Wright, recently asked whether gloom about the pandemic’s damage to Glasgow City Centre was overdone. He saw JPMorgan Chase’s growing commitment to Glasgow as just one sign of hope for the future and I would share that view, even if the short-term outlook is looking more testing.
The most recent data for economic activity in Glasgow City Centre suggests that recovery has stalled.
Over the summer months footfall has been stubbornly fixed at around 80% of pre-Covid levels, although that varies by the hour. A typical September day shows that the early morning peak commute is down around a third, while from 8pm into the late night the centre is actually busier than it used to be.
Spending, which has been ahead of pre-pandemic levels and has been driven more strongly by food and drink than shopping, is now weakening. August spend dropped 4% against July and the cost-of-living crisis is making its impact - only to get more severe in the months ahead.
These trends are not limited to Glasgow.
A report by Colliers for the New West End Company, which represents over 600 traders in the West End of London, showed that footfall there was also 20% down on 2019. Spending was matching or ahead of pre-pandemic levels but forecasts for next year were being reduced.
Work done for the Glasgow City Centre Taskforce, which I co-chair with the city’s Councillor Angus Millar, explored responses to the pandemic in various city centres across the world.
Shopping and offices, like those for JPMorgan Chase, will still be crucially important but early lessons describe a robust future for Glasgow City Centre hinging on three longer term developments; scope for more housing, a growing demand for a genuinely authentic and distinctive social experience for both Glaswegians and visitors alike, and the growth of investment in commercial innovation from our city centre based educational institutions. In each case the change is already happening but there are many bumps to iron out.
Glasgow City Council has set itself the target of doubling the city centre’s population to 40,000 people. Examples of progress include Moda Living’s Holland Park and Drum Property’s Candleriggs – both under construction and together providing over a thousand rental units.
But there are obstacles in the way. There is a common view that we should convert many of the empty units in our Victorian sandstone buildings into flats but the conversion costs, even before meeting net zero expectations, make that uneconomic. It is also very hard to see how the Scottish Government’s rent freeze will do anything other than chase potential housing investors away.
Improving the retail and leisure experience is also being explored with Landsec’s proposals for Buchanan Galleries and Sovereign Centros’s for St Enoch Centre currently in planning. In each case, the malls will give way to new urban districts more in keeping with Glasgow’s grid pattern with scope for new attractions which reflect Glasgow’s character.
But these will take time to deliver and active intervention is needed to help Sauchiehall Street find a fresh role. Action is also needed to improve the city’s transport infrastructure if we are to attract people into the city. Bus journey times are currently too long, taxis are in short supply, car parking is too expensive and rail timetables are becoming more restricted.
The innovation story is perhaps the most positive and least appreciated. The Glasgow City Innovation District is evolving swiftly from concept into reality. Strathclyde University’s Technology and Innovation Centre is full and a second centre is in design, part funded by the Charles Huang donation announced last year. Bruntwood SciTech has bought the Met Tower and will invest £60m in a digital innovation hub and Glasgow’s status as an Innovation Accelerator will next year begin to attract business investment in commercial research and development.
The next few months may well be turbulent but investing in Glasgow’s city centre will undoubtedly pay off in time.
This article was first published in The Herald on Wednesday 12 October 2022
